Fire and Ash Box Office Projections Fall Short of Franchise Goal

Avatar: Fire and Ash‘s box office projections continue to rise, but the latest projection for where the latest film in James Cameron’s epic franchise sees it falling short of its usual goal.

What are Avatar: Fire and Ash’s box office projections?

According to recent data The Hollywood Reporter, Avatar: Fire and Ash continues to climb in the box office. Although not there yet, THR projects that the movie will become just the third U.S. film released in 2025 to cross $1 billion (Zootopia 2 and Lilo & Stitch also crossed the milestone).

However, THR also notes that the film will not likely join its other Avatar franchise mates in crossing the rarified $2 billion mark. The report mentions that it could end somewhere around the $1.5-$1.8 billion range.

While $1.8 billion at the box office is nothing to scoff at, the latest Avatar tracking under its previous two predecessors (the first Avatar grossed $2.9 billion, and its sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water, grossed $2.3 billion) could leave the status of the future of the franchise up in the air. Director James Cameron has made it no secret that more films in the franchise will only be made if the franchise continues to make a lot of money. Fire and Ash’s budget was reported in the range of $400 million, meaning that in order to break even, the film has to make almost $1 billion at a baseline.

Cameron has never revealed a specific number that Fire and Ash has to make in order for the franchise to continue, but did note that it cost “one metric f–k ton of money” to make.

“It is one metric f–k ton of money, which means we have to make two metric f–k tons of money to make a profit,” Cameron said to IGN in November. “I have no doubt in my mind that this movie will make money. The question is, does it make enough money to justify doing it again?”

Currently, the fourth Avatar movie, which has no title and Cameron has said is already partially filmed, is set to release on December 21, 2029. A fifth movie in the franchise is also tentatively slated to release two years later, on December 19, 2031. It remains unclear if either will release as of yet, though.